Analysis of China Bearing Industry in 2011

Overview
According to the statistics supplied by China Bearing Industry Association after their research on the key bearing enterprises, the total sales value of China’s bearing industry in 2011 reached 142 billion Yuan, up 12.7% over the same period of the previous year, while the total output was 18 billion sets, demonstrating a 20% year-on-year increase. The annual export volume was 4.9 billion sets, earning 4.5 billion US dollars, increasing by 18.2% and 36.6% respectively compared with last year. The total import was 1.88 million sets, valued 4.17 billion US dollars, up 4.6% and 9.4% respectively. The trade surplus is 330 million US dollars.
Industry Analysis
1. Development of this industry demonstrates a high to low trend throughout the year, yet still maintains some growth.
In February 2011, sales of the key enterprises gained a 26.65% increase, and then the year-on-year growth rate kept dropping all the way. At the end of the year, the growth rate dropped to 10.27%.
2. Output and sales volume basically balanced, while stock value grew steadily
Monthly output and sales volume managed to keep balanced. But the stock value was increasing.
Inventory at the end of February amounted to 4.2 billion Yuan. The figure rose to 6.15 billion Yuan at the end of December, an increase of 46.4%. It shows that the percent of large bearings and high-end products of the inventory are growing.
3. The industry maintained a favorable balance of trade
China’s bearing industry suffered from trade deficit for the first two years since the global financial crisis. In 2009, trade deficit of China's bearing industry accumulated to 800 million US dollar. This figure dropped to 500 million US dollars in 2010. In 2011, trade balance managed to turn into trade surplus which was 330 million US dollars.
Reasons for the change are, on one hand, the adjustment of the exporting markets and the industrial structure of China’s bearing industry so that export of large bearings and high-end bearings are growing; on the other hand, the increase of factories built in China by multinational bearings corporations, thus imported bearings are decreasing.
Market Forecast to 2012
1. Trend of domestic market
As the uncertainties of domestic bearing market further increase, the industry will demonstrate a low-to-high trend. It is expected that the first half of 2012 will continue the downward trend of the fourth quarter of 2011, but in the second half year, it will recover slowly, although the recovery rate is limited. It is estimated the second half year will see a stable overall growth.
In recent years, some bearing enterprises especially the large-scale backbone enterprises, are carrying out transformation and upgrading and the structural adjustment. These efforts are starting to take effect; therefore, the sales value of the whole bearing industry is estimated to reach about 112 billion Yuan, increasing by 12%; the output will amount to 21 billion sets, up 16%.
Meanwhile, as the negative factors such as insufficient demand, over competition, rising prices of raw materials and labor cost in the business environment are increasing in 2012, management risks are growing.
2. Forecast to international market
Facts that Euro crisis cannot be improved in the short term, economies of the US and Japan stagnate, Asia's economic growth may slow down, are influencing China's bearing export. But from another perspective, the international economic downturn is bound to promote various economic efforts to reduce cost. China's bearings can take advantage of their great cost performance in such environment. Furthermore, China’s bearing industry is increasing in recent years. Therefore, in 2012, though China's bearing exports may not grow as rapidly as in 2011, there will not drop too much considering the pace of development in recent years. It is expected that export sales will grow about 15% in 2012.

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